Severe Weather Discussion for May 22 – 23, 2008.
– Active severe weather day is likely from western Oklahoma northward
into Nebraska. Tornadoes, destructive hail, and damaging winds are
– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across the same area as above.
– The chase level may be increased later tonight.
Not much time for a discussion. SPC has issued a moderate for
Thursday and the forecasting looks sound. Winds are not near as
unidirectional as models progged just a few days ago. This
speed/directional shear overlaid on what should be a very unstable
atmosphere will provide a favorable environment for supercells. A
strong cap will be present and as such only two or three storms are
expected in Oklahoma. Note that the slight risk is for storm coverage
not significance. The 10% hatched area goes all the way to north
Texas with the 30% area to I-40.
At this point Thursday looks real interesting and I certainly agree
with SPC that it may be a significant severe weather day. More
– Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: Day 1, Day 2, 05/22):
Slight: 100%, 100%
Moderate: 100%, 20%
High: 5%, 0%
Level 1 – Normal, but that may change, closely watching tomorrow.
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