Severe Weather Discussion – 2008-12-1

Severe Weather Discussion for May 22 – 23, 2008.
Valid: 05/21/2008.

Highlights:

– Active severe weather day is likely from western Oklahoma northward
into Nebraska. Tornadoes, destructive hail, and damaging winds are
all possible.

– Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday across the same area as above.

– The chase level may be increased later tonight.

Discussion:

Not much time for a discussion. SPC has issued a moderate for
Thursday and the forecasting looks sound. Winds are not near as
unidirectional as models progged just a few days ago. This
speed/directional shear overlaid on what should be a very unstable
atmosphere will provide a favorable environment for supercells. A
strong cap will be present and as such only two or three storms are
expected in Oklahoma. Note that the slight risk is for storm coverage
not significance. The 10% hatched area goes all the way to north
Texas with the 30% area to I-40.

At this point Thursday looks real interesting and I certainly agree
with SPC that it may be a significant severe weather day. More
details later.

Probabilities:

– Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: Day 1, Day 2, 05/22):

Slight: 100%, 100%
Moderate: 100%, 20%
High: 5%, 0%

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal, but that may change, closely watching tomorrow.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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One Response to Severe Weather Discussion – 2008-12-1

  1. wxman says:

    Main Threat:Southwest Nebraska, West-Central Kansas, Central Oklahoma, and Central Texas, today will be the main event.Areas above have threats for strong tornadoes specially in KS and Nebraska..tornado chasing is up..Hope to get this one..

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