Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for April 21 – 27, 2008.
Valid: 04/20/2008.

Highlights:

– Temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s all week.

– Thunderstorms are possible Monday night and Wednesday through Thursday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Atmosphere entered a summertime pattern last week and this is expected
to continue part of the upcoming week. Sensible weather is expected
to be on the low end of the scale much of the week. Primary days of
interest are Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Pattern across the southern plains will generally remain unamplified
through the week, while the primary storm pattern remains displaced
northward. Models are in decent agreement through Wednesday, with
little agreement after that time period.

A cold front is expected to move through Oklahoma on Tuesday as
northern stream low lifts northeast into Canada. Lack of amplitude
with this system will result in the cold front stalling in Texas. As
such, moisture should surge back north on Wednesday with showers and
thunderstorms possible in the WAA regime. Another upper system move
through the area late Thursday into Friday. This one will have more
amplitude and should push a strong cold front through the state on
Friday. This front will push moisture to the Gulf, inline with
climatology.

Low-end weather impacts seem possible Wednesday and Thursday. If the
upper system were to intensify some, then a severe threat could
develop. However overall weakness in the wind fields may not be
enough to take advantage of moderate instability before the cold front
sweeps through late Thursday. OUN seems somewhat excited about Monday
and while some parameters are there a few key ones are missing. At
this point I'm not very excited about any prospect this week for a
medium-end or higher event. Anything that pops up will be covered by
special discussions.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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