Severe Weather Discussion for March 31 – April 6, 2008.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday morning across northern Oklahoma. Additional severe thunderstorms are likely across the eastern 2/3rds of Oklahoma Monday afternoon and night.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday and again on Sunday.
– Temperatures will be on a roller coaster this week with mid 70s on Monday, dropping into the low/mid 60s on Tue/Wed. Temperature should reach the 70s again on Thursday with a cool down to the upper 60s Fri/Sat and another warmup on Sunday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 75%
– Storm Chase: 30%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Since I'm already issuing special discussions, I'm going to keep this real short.
Severe thunderstorms are likely Monday with potential Thursday and Sunday, per the 12z ECMWF. Since medium end events are expected, the probability is set at 75%. Note that I use this for impact and coverage. There will be severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma this week.
Mid-level pattern is currently shifting to a western U.S. trof and this feature will move through the central U.S. late Monday into Tuesday. By Thursday another southern stream shortwave trof is progged to move into the region as a longwave trof develops in the central U.S. The ECMWF has been most reliable with timing and system placement, so this is preferred over the flip-flopping GFS. Sunday is iffy given the D8 forecast and the tendency of the models to be too fast with features that far out. Either way, there is potential for activity whether WAA or dryline as the next system approaches.
Temperatures will generally be near seasonable norms after Monday. Current norm is 67F and should be 69F by next weekend. Don't expect much deviation except for Thursday and Sunday given the expected weather impacts.
For more information, weather news, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.