Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for March 17 – 23, 2008.
Valid: 03/17/2008.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are likely tonight across Texas and Oklahoma. The most significant activity is expected in west-central Texas where a tornado watch is posted.

– Active severe weather day is expected on Tuesday for east Texas. Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible.

– Temperatures will fluctuate this week with Wed – Sat the nicest days.

– Spring starts Thursday morning.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

I haven't spent much time of this forecast and I'm not going to type much. The large closed low over Texas right now is the main weather feature this week. This feature is causing severe thunderstorms across parts of Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon. Since the low is progged to move slowly across Texas late Tuesday, the severe weather threat will continue. It will shift east during the day Tuesday to eastern Texas where numerous severe thunderstorms are possible. The low will then open up and eject northeast and phase with the northern jet stream by Wednesday. The resulting surface high will clear out the Gulf, resulting in low precipitation chances through Saturday.

After the main low exits Texas on Wednesday there will be a lull in sensible weather for a few days. Models have advertised a system around Sunday, but very much disagree on the evolution. Given strong modification of the Gulf early this week by a Canadian airmass, it will be somewhat difficult to recover by Sunday. There is a low chance of showers on Sunday, depending on which model you believe. I'll stick with it for now and go with low pops.

Other than that it looks quiet with Tuesday a raw day with highs in the 50s. Wed – Sat should be really nice with highs in the 60s with maybe a few 70s. Normal high today is 63F and should be around 65F next Sunday. Sunday is a real tough one as a cold front is expected. If the progged system remains low amplitude, then the cold front timing would be correct. Sunday should be a little cooler.

At this point it looks like severe weather will be at a minimum in Oklahoma after tomorrow through at least next Monday.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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