Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for March 3 – 9, 2008.
Valid: 03/02/2008.

Highlights:

– Significant snowfall accumulations, 6-8 inches, are likely across east-central and southeast Oklahoma on Monday. Central and northeast sections will likely get snow, but in the 2-5 inches rainge.

– Temperatures will be cool this week, on the lower end of seasonable normals through Friday. A warming trend is expected over the weekend.

– Time change occurs Sunday 03/09 at 2:00am, turn clocks forward one hour.

– Issuing this early, in-lieu of special discussion, due to expected high impact weather on Monday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: > 75%

Discussion:

Powerful upper system is currently located over New Mexico and will slowly move east during the next 36 hours. Currently a strong cold front is surging south in Oklahoma and should clear the state by Monday morning. As the upper system moves south, temperatures in the 30s will be in-place across Oklahoma. This will provide a favorable thermodynamic profile for snow. 00z NAM hints at lost of snow for east-central Oklahoma and Tulsa has a winter storm watch up for this area. This will probably be upgraded to a warning by Monday morning. In central and northeast sections 2-5 inches of snow are possible and a snow advisory is posted for this issue. Upper system fails to remain phased with the northern jet as it moves east of the regin on Tuesday. It then moves northeast and weakens in confluent flow.

By late Wednesday the central U.S. longwave trof reloads as another southern stream system moves into the region. The GFS again keeps thi onee phased with the northern jet. No reason to pick this solution apart as it doesn't matter for sensible weather in our world due to moisture being pushed well south of the region. It will bring in another shot of cold temperatures. As noted this system should be moisture starved as the northern stream shortwave trof is slightly faster with a cold front proceeding the main system. There could be some snow with this system, but not expecting anything major.

Another southern stream shortwave trof approaches the region on Sunday the 9th, but model trends regarding this feature are iffy at best. And, moisture may be a concern. For now, I'm not going to get fancy and will stay with the current trends. The result should be temperatures in the 40s/50s this week, warming into the 60s over the weekend.

The primary weather impacts are expected Monday into early Tuesday. There may be some low-end impacts on Thursday as snow is possible.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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