Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for February 18 – 24, 2008.
Valid: 02/18/2008.

Highlights:

– Winter weather is possible Thursday and Friday, with thunderstorms in Texas.

– Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday for much of the region.

– Temperatures will be warm today and tomorrow, in the 50s/60s. A cool down for Wednesday – Friday in the 30s, with a warmup over the weekend. In general temperatures will be in the seasonable range this week.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 30%

Discussion:

A bit of a mess again this week, but at this point do not think the forecast is as tough. One system is progged to affect the region this week with another one approaching towards Sunday.

Today and tomorrow will be very pleasant as southerly flow develops at the surface. Temperatures will be in the 50s on Monday and warm into the 60s on Tuesday. By late Tuesday another northern stream shortwave trof will rotate around the large Hudson Bay polar vortex and dislodge an Arctic high. Said Arctic high will slam south into the region by early Wednesday. The bulk of the Arctic air will go east, but we'll still get a decent chunk here.

After the front passes through the region, a southern stream shortwave trof will move eastward into CO/NM. As this occurs, warm/moist Gulf air will be lifted over the cold dome resulting in widespread precipitation across the region. The 12z NAM was very robust on precip amounts pointing towards an ice storm for Oklahoma. However, the 18z and 00z runs have backed off on that solution. The pattern remains the same and the NAM is colder than the GFS. This solution would point to freezing rain across Oklahoma, around 0.10 to 0.30. The GFS is warmer, but has the same amount of precip. I'm going 30% at this point given the potential but it looks like the main impacts will be eastern Oklahoma. This appears to be the best region of moisture return and will see amounts above 0.10.

Due to the Arctic cold front and expected cloud cover, Wed – Fri will be cold. Sat and Sun should see a warming trend as the next shortwave trof approaches the region.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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