Winter (Severe) Weather Discussion for February 16 – 17, 2008.
*Significant Severe Weather Event for Eastern Texas Today*
– Active severe weather day is likely for much of eastern Texas. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with the potential for strong tornadoes. Additionally, destructive winds and large hail are possible.
– Winter weather threat in Oklahoma is decreasing, although snowfall of 3-5 inches is expected tonight in northwest Oklahoma.
– A flash flood watch continues for eastern Oklahoma.
A severe thunderstorm watch has been posted generally west of a line from Decatur to San Antonio. Severe thunderstorms are developing as the leading edge of deep layer ascent moves eastward into Texas. Farther east, generally east of the severe thunderstorm watch (I-35) the warm sector is capped. This area has temperatures in the low 70s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. This yields CAPE values from 2500 J/Kg in south Texas to 1000 J/Kg near Houston and decreasing to the north along I-45. The warm sector is expanding slightly to the north per 19z analysis. This trend is expected to continue during the afternoon. As deep layer lift approaches the region late this afternoon, discrete storms may develop. Any of these storms will be capable of strong tornadoes and large hail. By tonight a strongly forced squall line is expected as the southern stream closed low ejects eastward. The primary threat with this line of storms will be destructive winds as momentum transfer occurs.
Upper system is progged to lift northeast across eastern Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday. This places northwest Oklahoma in the heavy snow band, where 3-5 inches of snow are likely. In eastern Oklahoma, a flash flood watch is posted for 2-3 inches of rain, with localized amounts up to 5 inches. All precipitation should end by Sunday afternoon.
It is emphasized that this is a dangerous situation for parts of Texas. Persons in the threat area should review safety rules and be prepared for quick action should a watch or warning be issued.
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