Severe Weather Discussion for February 11 – 17, 2008.
– Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening in southeast Oklahoma southward to Houston. Primary threat is large hail. However, isolated tornadoes are possible near the Red River and just southwest of Houston (per SPC).
– Isolated freezing drizzle is possible in north-central and central Oklahoma, significant impacts are not expected.
– Winter precipitation is possible for parts of Oklahoma and north Texas late Thursday through Saturday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 50%
Since I'm already issuing special discussions, I'll keep this short. The mid-level pattern will feature a ridge across the far western U.S. with a longwave trof over central sections. Two systems will affect Oklahoma/Texas this week.
The first system will move in tonight and is responsible for the widespread cloud cover as isentropic lift occurs over the invading Arctic airmass. Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma as this system moves east tonight across Kansas. Presence of dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s and temperatures in the mid 60s may provide enough support for isolated severe thunderstorms in Texas and parts of southeast Oklahoma. Primary threat is large hail. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the stall Arctic front in southeast Oklahoma/Northeast Texas and again along the coast.
Temperatures will be on the lower end of seasonable norms this week with one warm day expected in Oklahoma, Wednesday. Texas will be warm through early Friday, when a cool down will occur. Sunday should see a warming trend areawide.
The second southern stream shortwave trof will move into the region on Friday. Models are struggling with this system, but a variety of precipitation types are expected across much of Texas, mainly rain. And, in Oklahoma winter precipitation.
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