Severe Weather Discussion for February 4 – 10, 2008.
– Extreme fire danger today for western Oklahoma, record highs likely across parts of the state.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible in the southeast 1/3rd Oklahoma where a slight risk is posted. Primary threats are large hail and strong winds, but given amount of directional shear isolated tornadoes are possible.
– Snow is expected in northern Oklahoma on Tuesday with 2-3 inches possible.
– Temperatures will be well above seasonable norms today with a drop back to more seasonable conditions Tuesday – Thursday and a warm-up over the weekend.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 20%
Main excitement this week will occur today and tomorrow as a southern stream shortwave trof traverses the region. Said trof was located over California this morning and should make rapid progress towards the region today. A surface low has developed in Colorado resulting in southerly flow across the region. This has allowed low 60s dewpoints to move into Oklahoma per latest Mesonet map. Best moisture is east of I-35 and this is expected to be the case throughout the day. A dryline was located in far western Oklahoma and this boundary should make rapid progress east today as moisture is quite shallow across central/western Oklahoma. By early afternoon the dryline is likely to be just east of I-35. This will place eastern Oklahoma at a threat for severe weather. A medium-end slight risk event is possible, especially if temperatures can warm sufficiently. Primary threats are large hail and strong winds, with an isolated tornado threat from discrete storms.
By Tuesday the surface low should move into north Texas as the upper system takes the southern route. This will bring a cold front through the state and also result in isentropic lift. Widespread rain is possible in central and southeast Oklahoma tonight into early Tuesday. As the upper system moves east and cold air deepens, a change over to snow is expected. Since northern Oklahoma will see the earliest change over, they have the best potential at accumulations of 2-3 inches. In central sections a dusting to 1 inch is possible.
After this system moves by another quick moving southern stream shortwave trof will approach in northwest flow. Moisture should remain too limited for any significant precipitation. Temperatures will be seasonably cool Tuesday – Thursday with highs in the low 40s Tuesday to low 50s Thursday. Tuesday may be a lot cooler depending on the cold front and associated cloud cover.
A broad shortwave ridge forms out west with a lull in upper systems beyond Thursday. A warming trend is expected Friday – Sunday with temperatures in the upper 50s to at least mid 60. Another southern stream shortwave trof is expected mid-next week.
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