Winter Weather Discussion 2008-3-2

Winter Weather Discussion for January 31, 2008.
Valid: 01/30/2008.

*Significant Winter Storm Expected for Oklahoma*

Highlights:

– Winter Storm Warning for northern half of Oklahoma, except Oklahoma City. This is a Particularly Dangerous Situation with the likelihood of widespread snowfall of 4-6 inches, with a band of 8-10 inches possible in north-central sections.

– A snow advisory is posted for much of central Oklahoma and this may be upgraded to a winter storm warning by Thursday morning.

– Travel across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma is strongly discouraged on Thursday.

– Snow drifts of 2-3 feet are likely with near white-out conditions across the northern 2/3rds of Oklahoma on Thursday.

– Snow should start in the early morning hours and intensify by 10am in central sections. The snow should tapper off in central sections around 1pm and in eastern Oklahoma by 6pm.

Discussion:

00z models continue prior trends of more QPF and hence snowfall across the state. This is due in part to the upper system digging farther south than originally progged and not a shocker given the 90kt 500mb jet on the west side of the system. Upper system will move rapidly east and clear the area by late Thursday. However, given the presence of widespread and impressive UVV's, heavy snowfall is likely. A deformation band is likely to form to the north of the 700mb low in north-central to northeast Oklahoma, in this area very heavy snowfall will occur with amounts of 8-10 inches possible.

Ground temperatures are in the low 40s and supportive of snow, especially if heavy snow occurs. Given farther south movement of the upper system, central Oklahoma may end up under the gun for heavy snowfall but I'll wait for the NWS to reconfigure the warnings before going that far.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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