Winter Weather Discussion 2008-3-1

Winter Weather Discussion for January 31, 2008.
Valid: 01/30/2008.

*Significant Winter Storm Possible for Oklahoma*

Highlights:

– Winter Storm Warning is posted for essentially the northern half of Oklahoma with 4-6 inches common, isolated areas of northeast Oklahoma may get up to 8 inches.

– Snow Advisory is posted for parts of central Oklahoma with 2-4 inches possible.

Discussion:

18z models really increased QPF amounts across the state. Whether or not this holds remains to be seem, but typically the 18z models hit on something new this close to an event. The 00z runs should be out in the next two hours. For now, not going to wait for the update and just issue a discussion.

Little about the event has changed other than the upper system appears to be tracking a little farther south and apparently the models have caught onto the moisture with it. 850mb moisture of 12C is in northern Texas on Thursday with moisture flowing around the 850mb low. Additionally 700mb level remains saturated during the day, which is also noted from model soundings. Even though the 500mb dry slot moves through during the day, the snow crystal growth region should be closer to 600mb where moisture remains. As such, snowfall duration is expected to be longer, allowing for higher accumulations. NWS warning configurations look good and some fine tuning may be required once the 00z models arrive.

At this point it looks like travel across northern Oklahoma on Thursday is a bad idea.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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