Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 28 – February 3, 2008.
Valid: 01/28/2008.

Highlights:

– Light snow for northern Oklahoma Tuesday morning. Better chance of snow for central and northern Oklahoma on Thursday.

– Temperatures on the upper end of seasonable today, with more seasonable conditions through Thursday. Friday – Sunday should see a warming trend from the 40s on Friday to the mid 50s on Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 25%

Discussion:

Models indicate several southern stream shortwave trofs will move across the area this week. The net result will be two upper systems with a few airmass changes. The air behind these systems isn't particularly cold, but given time of year is cold enough for snow.

First system lifting northeast out of the trof today should move by the the area by early Tuesday. Light snow is possible as the system move east of the region. Accumulations are not expected. Temperatures will be much cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as a Pacific airmass takes over. However, temperatures should be in the seasonable range, with the normal high being 49F.

On Thursday the next southern stream shortwave trof approaches the region and rapidly moves east by Friday morning. Moisture will attempt to return with this system, but models are low on the precip scale ATTM. Given quick movement, moisture will have a tough time moving into the area. Despite this, system should be strong enough for accumulating snow across northern Oklahoma of 2-3 inches and in central sections 1-2 inches. GFS is a little more excited by snowfall accumulations, but will go with a broad brush approach for now.

After this system moves by another Pacific surface ridge is expected as the active pattern remains. Next system is beyond this forecast period, but would expect rain and snow potential with it.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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