Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 21 – 27, 2008.
Valid: 01/21/2008.

Highlights:
– Light freezing rain/drizzle tonight into early Tuesday for the state.

– Showers are possible Friday and Saturday.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 30s to low 40s through Friday, warming to the low 50s Saturday and Sunday.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 15%

Discussion:

Typical mid-winter week on-tap the next few days as Arctic airmasses move through the region. Earlier concern about frozen precipitation has pretty much disappeared. There will be some freezing rain tonight and there will be travel problems, just not very significant. A winter weather advisory is posted for eastern Oklahoma where moisture return should be sufficient to cause enough freezing rain for travel problems.

Mid-level pattern remains highly amplified in the western U.S. This allows the Arctic airmasses to move through the region with one more expected on Wednesday. By the weekend a shortwave trof is expected to approach the west coast as a pattern change occurs across the lower 48. This should shutdown the Arctic intrusions with a return to more seasonable conditions. As the shortwave trof approaches a weakening cutoff low over the southwest U.S. will be kicked east into the region on Thursday. Enough moisture should be available for shower activity with temperatures warm enough for liquid precipitation. At this point the weekend looks nice as a shortwave trof enters the western U.S. heading for the region next week.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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