Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for January 7 – 13, 2008.
Valid: 01/07/2008.

Highlights:

– Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening in eastern Oklahoma.

– Snow is possible in northern Oklahoma tonight.

– Temperatures will be in the mid 50s after today, dropping to the mid 40s for the weekend.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Indian Summer will rapidly come to an end overnight as Pacific/somewhat Canadian cold front moves through the region tonight behind departing longwave trof. Another longwave trof is progged to develop across the region with at least two shortwave trofs moving through the remainder of the week. At this time moisture is expected to remain too limited for significant development. POPs are kept low as a result. Severe thunderstorms are underway in eastern OK into MO as the system moves into the region. Very impressive supercell has just moved northeast of Springfield MO and I certainly think it produced a tornado. RADAR images are on the blog.

Storms will continue through the late evening hours as the upper system moves across the region. Showers are possible along the cold front and all activity should be east of the area on Tuesday. The cold front, while not particularly strong, will make things feel much cooler as we won't be in the 70s. OKC set record highs Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures should be on the upper end of seasonable through Friday and potentially cooling to more seasonable levels this weekend. Two more cold fronts are expected this week with the one late Friday having some bite to it.

There is potential for Arctic air next week, but the models are all over the place.

We are entering the coldest part of the year with the normal high bottoming out at 46F for a few weeks.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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