Severe Weather Discussion 2008-1-2

Severe Weather Discussion for January 7, 2008.
Valid: 01/05/2008.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms remain possible Monday afternoon and evening from east Texas/west Louisiana northward to southeast KS/southwest MO.

– Snow is also possible in northern Oklahoma, but amount should be low.

Discussion:

Record highs today for many parts of the region with OKC doing 72F, prior record was 71F. Waco did 79F, which tied a record.

Little change to prior forecast and reasoning. Models have increased the speed of the surface low with it responding to a lead shortwave trof Monday afternoon. This places the surface low in southeast KS by 6pm Monday with the dryline in eastern Oklahoma. I'm not convinced of this solution and will wait a few more model runs to see if it verifies.

AFDOUN from this afternoon was great. January is not a favorable time of year for moisture to reach I-35 or move west. While 50F dewpoints may make it here, the majority of the convection should remain east. Just how far east is a good question. The system will be quite dynamic with strong wind fields at all levels. This would tend to favor shower activity early in the day or very tilted convection. Instability will remain weak and I think maybe too much for sustained updrafts. The best lift will be in Oklahoma, especially north of I-40. This may allow for robust convection to develop despite the strong winds aloft.

SPC Day 3 is also a good product and I continue to feel that this event does not rise to the a moderate level. I'll continue discussions for continuity and that I have nothing better to do.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 01/06, Day 2):

Slight: 100%
Moderate: 0%
High: 0%

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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