Severe Weather Discussion for December 31, 2007 – January 6, 2008.
*Happy New Year*
– Quiet this week with some temperature variations and a little Arctic air thrown in for good measure. Temperatures will be cool Monday – Thursday with highs in the 30s and 40s. Friday – Sunday will see temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s, with a really really nice/warm weekend expected.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Parade of southern stream shortwave trofs has ended as the prior longwave trof over the central U.S. is in the process of moving into the eastern U.S. Rather dry air has invaded the region at all levels as noted on water vapor, although the really dry air is in the southeast U.S. The mid level pattern will not favor much in the way of sensible weather for Oklahoma, other than airmass changes. This is not to under appreciate the Arctic air to our east and the potential for it to back door into Oklahoma. Bust potential will be pretty high temperature wise, but I am going with the NWS on the Arctic air making a visit to Oklahoma. No precipitation is expected this week, other than a slight chance of showers on Saturday in eastern Oklahoma.
As the longwave trof progresses east tonight into Tuesday, Arctic air will spill southeast into the eastern U.S. This air will likely back-door into Oklahoma on Tuesday, resulting in a very cold night across the state. Single digit temperatures to low teens is expected. Progressive pattern means the surface ridge will head east pretty fast and a warming trend should start on Thursday. Fire weather will be a concern as the surface remains quite dry through Friday. By Saturday some limited moisture should start to return to the area, albeit more to the east. Showers are possible in eastern Oklahoma has a southern stream shortwave trof moves across the region. Sunday should continue to be warm as a much larger system moves into the western U.S. Moisture starts to make a return at this point and 60F dewpoints are possible by next Monday. While this is beyond the scope of this forecast, models have remained pretty consistent on this system. There are some timing differences
between the ECMWF and GFS, but that is not a shocker. Presence of southwest flow aloft and no upper systems in the northern jet stream and one system on Saturday mean limited cold fronts beyond tomorrow. The only other cold front expected is on Sunday and this shouldn't have much cold air or push with it.
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