Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for December 24 – 30, 2007.
Valid: 12/24/2007.

*Merry Christmas to All*

– Temperatures will be in the seasonable range this week with lot of variation. The typical range is from the mid 40s to the low 50s.

– There is a slight chance of snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, again late Thursday, and finally Sunday. Significant snow is not expected but a dusting to 2 inches may occur across mainly northern Oklahoma.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 15%

Discussion:

Longwave trof will continue across the central U.S. this week as a very progressive northern and southern streams continue across the lower 48. Three systems will affect the region this week, bringing a slight chance of snow with each system. Prior systems have pushed Gulf moisture well out of the region and as such there isn't much moisture for dendritic snowflake growth. However, since there will be 600mb moisture with these systems, some snow is possible. The models handle these systems very well and have good confidence in the low QPF's shown by each model.

As each system passes by a surface ridge will move through ushering in mainly Pacific air. There could be some Canadian air mixed in from time to time. In general temperatures will be quite seasonable this week with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. The current normal high is 48F in OKC, with the yearly min of 46F occurring in early January.

Recent runs of the GFS indicate an Arctic dump around January 1st. Luckily this is beyond the current forecast period, but it is something to watch.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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