Severe Weather Discussion for December 17 – 23, 2007.
– Quiet and pleasant late fall week ahead. Temperatures will be seasonable in the 50s through Friday and 40s Sat/Sun.
– Chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.
– Winter Solstice occurs on Saturday.
– 8 Shopping Days Left until Christmas!
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%
Zonal flow will dominate the atmosphere through Friday as one weak and short wavelength system moves through the region on Wednesday. Right now it appears this system may produce some light rainfall, but more likely clouds. After that system moves east a larger amplitude southern stream shortwave trof moves onto the Pacific coast and arrives in the region on Saturday. Model runs a few days ago showed a snow concern, but that has hence disappeared. Northern stream is contained in Canada and there is little cold air moving this way. As such, this system is too far north and lacks cold air for anything other than liquid precip. However, as the surface and 850mb lows move east of the region and the 500mb system moves into the region there will be a chance for snow in northern Oklahoma. The 10% represents this chance, little in the way of accumulations is expected.
SPC has the southeast corner of Oklahoma in Day 4-8, specifically Day 5. I do agree with this given the strength of the upper system and available moisture. I don't think the threat will get much farther north due to time of year, so the 10% should cover this threat. At this time special discussions are not anticipated for the winter or severe threat this Saturday.
After the deep freeze last week, global warming will make things feel a lot nicer this week. In fact it should be a very pleasant late fall week. Temperatures will generally be in the 50s today – Friday, with a drop into the 40s Saturday and Sunday.
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