Winter Weather Discussion 2007-14-9

Winter Weather Discussion for December 14 – 15, 2007.
Valid: 12/14/2007.

**Significant Snowfall Expected**

Highlights:

– Heavy Snow Warning for all of western and much of central Oklahoma, 4-6 inches likely with locally higher amounts.

– Winter Weather Advisory for northeast and east-central Oklahoma, this should be upgraded to a warning but probably won't.

– Bitterly cold temperatures expected Saturday night into Sunday.

Discussion:

12z models remain consistent with the evolution of the approaching southern stream shortwave trof. The GFS shows an area of higher QPF in southwest and central OK during the event. This leads some confidence to the development of a CSI band in this region. If this should occur, rapid snowfall is possible. SPC just issued an MCD for the panhandles into KS and it appears they're focusing on a CSI band developing real soon on those areas.

As such, the continuing forecast emphasis of a significant snowfall event appears on track. Widespread 4-6 inches are likely across all of western OK and much of central OK. Areas in south-central OK into southeast will likely experience a dusting to 2 inches with this storm. I would not be surprised to see a few snowfall totals greater than eight inches in northern sections. Models under did the event last week and I think they're doing the same thing here.

For now the warnings are posted and we have a decent idea what to expect.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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