Winter Weather Discussion for December 14 – 15, 2007.
– Winter Storm Watch for all of western and parts of central Oklahoma Friday morning through Saturday morning.
– 400,000 meters remain without power in Oklahoma.
12z NAM-WRF came in much colder and wetter than prior runs. The 18z NAM flipped on the precip, significantly lowering what is expected. The GFS has remained consistent with at least 0.25 water equivalent expected across much of the state. There will likely be higher amounts in location difficult to pinpoint this far out. Both models indicate that temperature profile will be cold enough for snow when the main forcing arrives. As such, expect very little loss due to rain or other forms of of precipitation. Ground temperatures are in the low 40s and will have an easy time supporting snow.
The question for this event isn't if it will snow, it is how much. The GFS does seem to focus on common 4 inches across the area, typically north of a line from Walters to Pauls Valley to Stillwell. Areas near this line will likely get up to one inch with area south of the line only a dusting Saturday morning. Farther northwest the snowfall totals should increase and may max in north-central Oklahoma. I think a few eight inch reports are possible. I'm not yet convinced of model moisture fields and will await further runs.
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