Winter Weather Discussion for December 11 – 15, 2007.
*Ice Storm Ending for Oklahoma*
*634,000 meters without power in Oklahoma*
– Rain will continue today with a chance of light freezing rain tonight. This should only cause minor traffic problems. Rain should end on Wednesday.
– Snow is possible across much of the state Friday and Saturday.
– Oklahoma Emergency Operations Center remains on 24 hour activation.
– Emergency Disaster Declaration issued for Oklahoma's 77 counties last night. A Major Disaster Declaration will be requested.
Crazy weather looks to continue the next few days. However, we will get a break Thursday into early Friday.
12z models continue to spread rain across Oklahoma through Wednesday as the large closed low over the southwest U.S. moves towards the region. Current thinking is this low should be east of the region by late Wednesday and hence all precipitation with it.
Next upper system moves into the southwest on Thursday and is progged to move rapidly towards the region on Friday. Cold air should spill into the state behind the Wednesday system and as a northern stream shortwave trof moves across Michigan. As such, the current expected environment should favor all snow across the state. The 12z GFS and ensemble members point this direction, southeast Oklahoma would probably sit out. However, it is worth nothing that the 12z NAM-WRF is the opposite direction and keeps Oklahoma in a cold rain. Coordination with the NWS points towards the GFS as preferred model and I do agree. There is a lot of cold air and ice in Oklahoma, it won't be easily moved. The NAM-WRF is likely too far north with it surface low over Midland, with the GFS's Mexico solution better.
Given the current disaster in Oklahoma, this potential snow storm may be a much bigger deal than would normally be expected. I do not like to forecast two big events in one week, but I have to go with it at this point.
Discussions will continue for the next few days.
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