Winter Weather Discussion for December 10 – 12, 2007.
***This is a Life Threatening Situation***
***270,000 meters without power in Oklahoma***
– Ice Storm Warning continues for much of Oklahoma through 6pm tonight, an area north of a line from Mangum to Oklahoma City to Stillwater continues through 6am Tuesday.
– Additional frozen precipitation is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Event is now worse than January 2002 and December 2000, exactly what I said it wouldn't do. Why do I do this?
Very thick warm nose continues on Norman's sounding this morning with temperatures at 900mb going above freezing and staying that way until 690mb. Very unusual for mid-December, as noted by Norman last night. Freezing line is located from Ardmore to Tahlequah this morning with an area of freezing rain along I-44 from Texas to KS/MO. This activity will continue to be spotty for a few more hours and may even decrease a little. Winds are currently light and variable across much of the region, but have generally turned to a southerly direction. Winds in Texas remain out of the north.
00z NAM-WRF went really low on QPF and the 12z run has continued this trend through Tuesday morning. It doesn't completely remove QPF but it is much lower than the GFS. I really have to stick with the GFS at this point as I think the NAM-WRF is wrong is eroding the cold air dome and hence the best lift. The dome is thicker than expected and currently about 70mb. The WAA should do some decent work on it, but gonna take a while. For this forecast I'm going with additional freezing rain for Oklahoma City through this afternoon, with potential to warm above freezing tonight. That warming may actually result in Oklahoma City getting a freezing rain/rain mix as ice melts and rain freezes causing lots of temperature flux. Northwest Oklahoma will likely see freezing rain throughout the event.
For now I'm not going to worry about Tuesday and Wednesday as the temperature profile will likely change, causing serious complications to the forecast.
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