Winter Weather Discussion 2007-14-4

Winter Weather Discussion for December 9 – 11, 2007.
Valid: 12/09/2007.

**Significant Freezing Rain Event Today – Tuesday**

Highlights:

– Ice Storm Warning for central Oklahoma through this evening, it will likely be continued and expanded this afternoon.

– Winter Storm Watch for much of Oklahoma through Tuesday morning, this will likely be discontinued in favor of an ice storm warning.

Discussion:

Every once and a while I miss one and this I did.

12z NAM has caught on to how cold it is and the amount of expected warming through Tuesday morning. Suffice it to say the warming may not be as expected and this would be true given the rather cold temperatures across the area. I should note these temperatures are much colder than any prior model forecasts. The GFS is ignored due to an unreasonable warm bias the past few days.

Forecast is now taken from the 12z NAM-WRF and the prognosis is bleak. Lack of warming through Monday afternoon means that the QPF map of .4 inches will be MORE ice for the I-44 corridor. At this time I believe the forecast and while there may be some warming down south, it will likely take longer than earlier thought since there is continued cold air advection into northern Oklahoma and sustaining the freezing rain from warming the boundary layer. The freezing line will be closely monitored the next few hours and days, but right now it looks ugly for Oklahoma.

An updated discussion will likely be needed this afternoon to account for advisories/warnings.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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