Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for December 3 – 9, 2007.
Valid: 12/03/2007.

Highlights:

– Temperatures generally on the warm side this week, with little to no precipitation expected. End of week has some potential, but I think best chance is beyond this forecast period.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: 10%

Discussion:

Over all temperatures are expected to be on the warm side of seasonable norms with near record temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 60s/low 70s. Wednesday should cool off with temperatures hovering in the mid/upper 50s through Saturday. Sunday is a real iffy one given the cold air to the north. I agree with NWS OUN and will go mid 60s for Sunday. The cold air in Canada seems a little too far east to have much of an impact on us right now.

We are starting off the week with shortwave ridging in the west with slight northwest flow across Oklahoma. Our prior system is located over the Great Lakes and is responsible for the cold front yesterday morning. The next few days will see the ridge to our west amplify as the flow over Oklahoma veers. Several small systems will traverse southeast into the mean longwave trof over the eastern U.S. These should have little affect on Oklahoma through Tuesday night, other than we'll have pretty warm conditions with downslope flow. On Wednesday a shortwave trof enters the mean longwave position over the eastern U.S. as the entire system starts to lift out of the lower 48. Out west the shortwave ridge has slightly de-amplified as a southern stream shortwave trof moves over Colorado. By the weekend a deep southwestern U.S. system develops and turns the flow across Oklahoma southwesterly. This should warm us up and keep the cold air up north. Since this is similar to what happened
last weekend and no Arctic intrusions are expected, I think temperatures above seasonable can be expected.


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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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