Severe Weather Discussion for November 12 – 18, 2007.
– Temperatures well above seasonable norms today and Tuesday with highs typically mid/upper 70s. Temperatures will cool off Wednesday – Saturday, generally in the mid/upper 60s. Sunday looks to be in the low 60s.
– Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday morning.
– Nothing of interest in the tropics.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Little sensible weather expected again this week as the mid-level flow remains in a low-amplitude pattern. The results of this pattern will be continued warm conditions for the region. A cold front on Tuesday will struggle to get into southern Oklahoma and should weaken during the day. A stronger cold front, pushed by a northern stream shortwave trof, should move through the area on Wednesday. This will provide for more seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week.
A weak southern stream system is expected the move across the region today and may provide enough lift to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday morning. A closed/cutoff low is hanging out near Baja currently and should remain there for a few more days. This system is progged to open up and traverse east by late in the week. Moisture should be limited on Saturday as the system moves across the region, so little is expected from it.
GFS continues to hint at a more amplified pattern during Thanksgiving, we'll see.
The tropics are quiet.
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