Severe Weather Discussion for November 5 – 11, 2007.
– Temperatures in the upper 60s today, falling late this afternoon. Cool on Tuesday in the 50s, with a warming trend Wed – Sun. Temperatures should start out in the low 60s on Wednesday, warming to the low/mid 70s on Sunday.
– Tropics are seasonably quiet, with NHC watching one system near Honduras.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Another pleasant mid-fall week for the region. Expect seasonable conditions today – Thursday with temperatures warming to the upper end of seasonable by Saturday. Sunday may see temperatures go above seasonable conditions to near record terrority if southwest flow develops as progged. A mitigating factor may be moisture return.
Advertised cold front this morning is moving through northwest Oklahoma and should make central Oklahoma in a few hours. This front will bring strong northerly winds and a noticeable chill given the very warm temperatures yesterday. Upper system providing support for this front developed farther east than expected last week. As such the primary cold surge will be east of the region and not have much of an Arctic tap. Despite the reduced Arctic air, the cold front should bring enough cool/dry air to get parts of the area below freezing Tuesday into Wednesday. This is about normal for Oklahoma.
After Tuesday little sensible weather is expected with only a slight change in airmass possible toward the weekend. Models show a large low pressure system over northeast Canada and this will help maintain a strong longwave trof in the eastern U.S. through Friday. Said low moves out on Saturday and may allow the flow to buckle in the west. 00z/06z GFS runs indicate a shortwave trof moving into the region just beyond this forecast period. I do have some concern that model timing will change again and this system will end up affecting the region on Sunday. Moisture return looks sufficient to warrant precip chances for Monday the 12th, or whenever the system gets close enough. A severe risk seems possible in Texas, but once again timing is iffy. SPC has noted this also in their Day 4-8, but I do agree that timing is too iffy to outlook ATTM.
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