Severe Weather Discussion for October 29 – November 4, 2007.
– Seasonable temperatures this week. Temperatures should be 71 – 75 through Wednesday and 62-68 Thursday – Sunday.
– Time change at 2:00am on Sunday November 4th, move clocks back one hour.
– Tropical Storm Noel continues near Cuba, currently this system is not expected to impact the U.S.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
A beautiful mid-fall week is on tap for Oklahoma and Texas. The southern and northern jet streams will remain north of the area with a few systems to move through the flow. These systems will be primarily wind produces and slight airmass changes.
A typical late October/early November week seems indicated in the models the past few days. The 00z/06z GFS remains nearly consistent with the weekend runs regarding the atmospheric pattern this week. Models do diverge by Sunday with potential impacts next week largely unknown. Weekend GFS seemed to hint at some Arctic air next week, but not so sure right now. Luckily that is beyond the scope of this forecast period.
A northern stream shortwave trof will move across the northern U.S. on Wednesday, as a broad shortwave ridge remains across the southern U.S. This will push a Pacific cold front into the region late in the day. The next few days will be warm, but seasonable, with temperatures in the low/mid 70s. The Pacific airmass will take hold late Wednesday resulting in temperatures on the low side of the season for Thursday – Friday. A stronger shortwave trof is expected to move across the northern U.S. on Friday and push another Pacific cold front through the area. The models differ on the frontal passage, per AFDOUN. However, the front should be dry and is not a significant cool down. Temperatures are again expected to be in the low/mid 60s Saturday and Sunday.
Moisture is confined to the Gulf and little precipitation is expected this week. There is some thinking that the cold front Fri/Sat might produce some showers, but confidence is low ATTM.
Noel should end up in the central Atlantic with little to no impact on the U.S.
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