Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for October 22 – 28, 2007.
Valid: 10/22/2007.

Highlights:

– Temperatures on the low side of the season this week. For Monday – Thursday in the 50s with a warm-up into the 60s Friday – Sunday. After today, only slight chances of rain kept for tomorrow – Friday. Which model verifies will have huge implications on temperatures day to day.

– Tropics are quiet, nothing expected.

– Note about Hook-echo.com. After an ISP issue the website is back online. The 41 audio will be down a few more days, but should be back up later this week.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Main weather feature this week is just west of the region this afternoon. There is much talk about what this system will do and it appears the models have finally developed an agreement.

Despite the models agreeing, I'm not stupid enough to think they have a handle on the evolving pattern. Current longwave trof to our west will split with the southern stream system closing off over Oklahoma. This feature becomes cutoff from the southern jet stream and is progged to meander around the region for a few days. Where this thing sets up shop is anyone's guess and has huge implications for the forecast. I tend to agree with the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF of the closed low drifting east into Louisiana and then stalling. Models then develop a 588dm ridge over the eastern U.S., which steers the system northwest and eventually around the northern edge of the longwave ridge as it weakens and merges with the northern jet stream. The ECMWF doesn't bring the low as far west as the GFS and this is too close to call right now. My Thursday forecast does hinge on the closed low moving northwest over Oklahoma.

There isn't much weather expected this week other than typical day to day temperature variations. For the most part the temperature changes are normal for October. Today is on the low end of what is expected, but certainly not record breaking. The next few days will remain on the low side of the seasonable temperatures with a warm up for the weekend to more seasonable conditions. The shocking thing about today is the long string of 80F days the past few weeks.

Models push moisture well into the Gulf the next few days as the closed low meanders over Louisiana. Moisture should remain locked to the south through the week as no upper system approach from the west to draw it back up here.

Nothing happening in the tropics.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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