Severe Weather Discussion 2007-13-1

Severe Weather Discussion for October 17, 2007.
Valid: 10/16/2007.

*Active Severe Weather Day is Expected on Wednesday*

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are likely Wednesday afternoon and evening across all of central and eastern Oklahoma. Primary threats are tornadoes, destructive hail, and damaging winds.

Discussion:

I meant to issue one of these last night and just didn't get around to it. This forecast is taken mainly from SPC Day 2 as I have had little time to spin up on the models this morning.

SPC has issued a moderate risk for all of central and eastern Oklahoma for Wednesday. This is a potentially significant severe weather event with damaging tornadoes. Their words, not mine. They have used 45% probabilities, one step below a high risk.

A major caveat for tomorrow is the extent of overnight convection. If showers hang around all day, then the severity will be much lower than currently expected. However, if any surface heating can occur, then the full potential may be realized.

Another discussion will be issued this afternoon.

I'll get to the probabilities and such later. Currently the chase status remains at normal since everyone is gone/busy but me.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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