Severe Weather Discussion for October 8 – 14, 2007.
– Showers and thunderstorms today, ending this evening.
– Temperatures generally in the upper 70s this week.
– Slight chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.
– There are a few areas of interest in the tropics today, but nothing imminent.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Closed low moving across the north-central U.S. and this feature is helping push a Pacific cold front through the region. Said cold front is not that strong, but the resulting atmospheric pattern this week will keep us lower than the past few weeks.
The current closed low will continue to move northeast and slowly weaken. The 00z and 06z GFS runs continue the prior trend of strengthening this low and moving it southeast into the northeast U.S. on Thursday. This will keep a surface high near the region through the week. While the cold air advection should cease soon, the above mentioned closed low will tap some Canadian air. The brunt of this air will go east of us, but we'll get recirculated cool and dry air from it this week. Model dewpoints are generally in the 50s for the next few days. This should make for cool nights and pleasant afternoons. All in all typical October weather is expected this week.
Once the current closed low gets by the region on Tuesday a longwave ridge builds in over the central U.S. This ridge will remain in place through the week. The GFS attempts to undercut the ridge on Saturday with a weak southern stream shortwave trof. The presence of this feature is dubious at best, but have gone ahead with low precip chances for now. Model dewpoints are in the mid 60s on Sunday and a dryline is indicated out west. For now I'll go on the low side of the severe probabilities as the main influence appears to be just west of the region.
The tropics are seasonably quiet with one area NHC is watching. This area is near Belize and a hurricane hunter may investigate it later today.
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