Weekly Severe Weather Discussion

Severe Weather Discussion for August 27 – September 2, 2007.
Valid: 08/27/2007.

Highlights:

– Above normal temperatures Monday – Wednesday, slightly below normal Thursday – Sunday.

– Chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday – Friday, severe weather should remain limited.

– Tropics are quiet, but after Dean that is a good thing.

Probabilities:

– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%

Discussion:

Upper ridge centered in Kansas will reassert itself the next few days as it builds a little west and strengthens. Heights remain high across much of the southern lower 48; typical late August pattern, with heights typically 590dm or higher. The ground is drying out a little in central Oklahoma and with the ridge nearby, temperatures have trended upward. There should be little change to the atmospheric pattern through Wednesday, this places temperatures in the mid-90s for the region the next few days.

00z GFS has been consistent with moving a shortwave trof through the northern U.S. this week. While the ridge will remain strong over the southern states, a weak cold front will attempt to push into the area. OUN indicates that enough convection may occur in Kansas late Tuesday into Wednesday to push a pre-frontal trof into Oklahoma. This would certainly skew the temperatures a little. The front should push through much of Oklahoma by late Thursday and hang up around the Red River. This boundary should remain through Saturday when return flow will get rid of it. Temperatures Thursday – Saturday should be near or just below normal. Sunday may see temperatures rise above normal as lee trofing takes place. GFS does show a weak wave nearby, but that is awfully questionable and for now will keep it out. If it does materialize, then temperatures will be on the cool side of the forecast. Current normal in OKC is 90F.

Tropics are quiet right now with NHC monitoring two waves that have little potential. We are two weeks away from the climatological peak in hurricane season.

GFS has hinted at a strong shortwave trof to move across the region on the 6th. This is present again in the 00z run and will be monitored for severe weather potential.

Highs in OKC:

08/26: 93F
08/25: 89F
08/24: 91F
08/23: 93F
08/22: 92F
08/21: 91F
08/20: 94F
08/19: 89F
08/18: 86F
08/17: 94F
08/16: 98F
08/15: 100F
08/14: 101F
08/13: 101F

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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