Hurricane Dean Discussion – 2007-2

***Dean a Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane***
Valid: 08/17/2007.

– Sorry for the delay in issuing these, e-mail and other problems this week have prevented issuances.

At 10:00pm CDT –

– Cat 4 Hurricane Dean was located 755 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Movement is towards the west at 18mph, maximum sustained winds are near 145mph and additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Minimum surface pressure is 937mb.

– Hurricane force winds extend outward to 60 miles and tropical storm force winds to 205 miles.

– Dean is not currently a threat to the U.S., but may become one by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Discussion:

Dean has lived up to the potential given the warm SSTs and favorable atmospheric conditions near the cyclone. Currently a strong deep layer ridge is to the north of Dean, allowing it to move rapidly west-northwest. Models agree that this trend will continue through 72 hours and this is noted in NHC's 10:00pm discussion. Beyond 72 hours things get real hairy, with the models jumping all over the place. This is not a surprise and is rather common this far out. It is way premature to talk about a U.S. or Mexico hit. However, all indications point to Dean impacting some part of Mexico or the U.S. by late next week.

Intensity wise, Dean is the first major hurricane of the 2007 season and is already a killer. Given that Dean is a mid-Cat 4 hurricane, some fluctuations in intensity are likely as eyewall replacement cycles occur. NHC is going with a Cat 5 hurricane by Saturday morning as Dean passes over Jamaica Sunday morning. Current NHC forecast track puts Jamaica in a worse case scenario with Dean, as the cyclone passes just south of the island and the eye may stay over the warm water. As is common with storms of this strength, there could be eye wobbles along the overall track to the west-northwest.

Now that my webmail is fixed, daily discussions will probably occur.

For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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