Severe Weather Discussion for August 13 – 19, 2007.
– TD4 forms in the eastern Atlantic. Current track has it on a southern route through the Windward Islands around Friday/Saturday.
– Temperatures above 100F through Friday, maybe dropping into the upper 90s this weekend.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Hot summertime conditions continue across the region this week. We are in the slow cool down from max heat, with the normal OKC high now 93F. However, the atmosphere will remain in summer mode as the 594dm ridge remains anchored over the region.
12z GFS is consistent with prior runs on keeping the 594dm ridge in-place a few more days. This most recent run is a little weaker with the ridge as it moves to the east. However, I do not expect that to have a huge impact on temperatures given the warm ground temperatures and thickness values in the 590’s. Also, the ground remains dry across much of the region. This is seasonable and is not likely to change until we get a cold front or rain.
The GFS has really tried to expand the polar front the past few runs and this remains to be seen. It would be just a little ahead of schedule and OUN made note of this also. Most of the action is beyond this week as the GFS shows a strong western coast closed low moving into the lower 48. A quick moving shortwave trof will move across the northeast U.S. and this may backdoor a cold front into the region. Prospects are low but will drop temperatures into the upper 90s as the ridge should have moved to east and may allow for a little cooling. Long-term relief from the current heat is not seen as the central U.S. 588dm ridge remains firmly in-place.
Our next tropical depression has formed way out in the Atlantic. It is currently about 300 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is move around 15-20kts, but will be some time before it gets to the Windward Islands, probably 5 days. NHC has noted that the system is experiencing easterly shear and this is hindering intensification. We’ll have to wait until Thursday for any meaningful development. The system should maintain a low latitude as a deep layer ridge is present to the north. NHC is also monitoring an area of showers near Cancun, although no meaningful development has occurred.
Edited to add –
Highs in OKC:
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