The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression 4.
At 10:00am, Tropical Depression 4,
– was located way out in the eastern Atlantic or about 2000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Movement is towards the west at 21mph, maximum sustained winds are near 35mph, and estimated minimum surface pressure is 1005mb.
– is not currently a threat to land and will be several days before it is a threat to the Leeward Islands.
Little to say about TD4 right now, other than it exists. It is currently experiencing easterly shear and this has kept development limited. Said shear should remain in-place through 72 hours and may weaken at that point. Models are quite aggressive in strengthening TD4 over the next five days. Intensity is a real tough call with the current shear and NHC's conservative forecast is good. As such, TD4 should slowly strengthen through 72 hours with increase potential beyond that time frame. All things being equal, TD4 may get a name late Tuesday into Wednesday. Currently it will be named Dean, assuming another tropical system doesn't develop first.
Track wise, TD4 is way out there. It is progged to stay south, making it to 15N latitude by Saturday. This solution is supported by a deep layer ridge to the north of TD4.
I'll keep discussions on an every other day pattern unless there are significant developments or TD4 threatens land.
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