Severe Weather Discussion for August 6 – 12, 2007.
– Temperatures above normal all week, typical summer heat.
– Tropics are seasonably active with two tropical waves last week and T.S. Chantal.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: < 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Atmospheric pattern changed late last week, as expected. A 594dm ridge is located over the central U.S. with a trof just off the western coast. The ridge dominates much of the central/eastern lower 48. GFS migrates the ridge a little east to AL by Wednesday and then brings it back west to the central U.S. through the weekend. This means that storm chances will remain low and temperatures will be slightly above seasonable norms. The ground is drying out and this is noted by last week's temperature trend, along with the presence of the 594dm ridge. If Oklahoma is going to hit 100F, it will probably happen Thursday – Sunday as the ridge migrates back over the region.
The models strongly diverge after next Sunday as the 00z GFS wants to crash the central U.S. ridge. The 06z GFS keeps the ridge in-place and this solution fits best with what would be expected and the general ensemble trends. As such, little relief is noted for the next 7-10 days. Although, not anything to complain about since it is August and not late June.
Tropics had a few systems last week, neither of them amounted to much. Tropical Storm Chantal made a brief appearance early last week before getting absorbed into a frontal system. A strong tropical wave, one with seemingly good potential, moved into the Windward Islands and on west. This system was not able to develop.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.