Severe Weather Discussion for July 30 – August 5, 2007.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday. Severe weather should remain limited.
– Temperatures will be slightly below normal through Wednesday, trending to just above normal the remainder of the week.
– Tropics are seasonably active with a few tropical waves noted this past week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
The general atmospheric pattern will remain the same with a broad ridge over the central and western U.S. and weak trofing over eastern sections. This is more of a normal summer time pattern, although the ridging is not quite as strong. Typically a more intense 594dm ridge is noted in the U.S. this time of year. Heights were generall around 588dm across much of the region with the ridge center over Utah, extending northeast into the north central U.S. as of 12z. Lack of significant rainfall Oklahoma has allowed the soil to dry out and a corresponding increase in day time temperatures. This is noted by Oklahoma City reaching 96F yesterday and already 81F today.
However, a weak shortwave trof is noted across Kansas with a frontal/outflow boundary in northern Oklahoma. Widespread convection in Kansas has helped push this boundary into Oklahoma. Dewpoints are in the low 70s in northern Oklahoma to the mid 70s in southern sections. This should prove enough for showers and thunderstorms today, given weakness in ridging aloft. The boundary should allow more widespread activity than seen the past few days. Weak flow aloft should keep activity below severe levels. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday as the boundary remains in Oklahoma but begins to wash out by the middle of the week.
So far this summer has been really nice, but expect some heat to develop by next weekend. AFDOUN hinted at triple digits for parts of the region and I would agree with this assessment. Climatology wise we're in the hottest part of the year. Rainfall the next few days should help keep us near or slightly below normal. As the mid-level ridge intensifies and moves east, temperatures should warm into the mid/upper 90s across much of the state by the weekend. Models want to displace the ridge next week, but a little early to speak on that one. Normal at OKC continues to be 94F.
A few tropical waves popped up last week, which amounted to very little activity. The tropics are seasonably active and I wouldn't be surprised to see some additional activity this week. The next forecast guidance for the 2007 tropical season is due out this week. The peak of tropical season is September 10th, many weeks away.
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