Severe Weather Discussion for July 16 – 22, 2007.
– Near normal temperatures this week.
– Slight chance of thunderstorms Friday.
– Tropics remain quiet, but would expect some limited activity.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%.
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Models indicate the western U.S. 594dm ridge will expand north and east during the week. This is a typical summertime pattern for the region and see no reason to disagree with the models. Presence of a very moist ground should help keep the temperatures in-check and will go with near normal temperatures for the week. Normal in OKC as of tomorrow is 94F, which stays that way for a few weeks.
Models do indicate a strengthening shortwave trof over the eastern U.S. by the weekend and this may allow a cold front to back door into the region. If this can occur it will cool things off a few degrees for the weekend. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front. Presence of weak flow aloft should limit the severe activity.
The tropics remain quiet as of today. I think we might see some increased action this week, but so far there is very little to talk about. Not unusual, just strange after 2004 and 2005, given the predictions for this year.
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