Severe Weather Discussion for July 9 – 15, 2007.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible across western and a small part of central Oklahoma northwest into Kansas Tuesday through Friday. Hail to quarter size and winds to 60mph will be the primary threats, along with excessive rainfall.
– Showers and thunderstorms are likely for much of Oklahoma during the week.
– Temperatures will be slightly below normal all week with much below normal on days with debris clouds.
– Tropics are seasonably quiet with a little bit of action last week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
The atmospheric pattern will amplify this week as a longwave trof develops in the eastern U.S. With a 594dm ridge over the western areas, Oklahoma will be placed in northwest flow aloft. Presence of dewpoints in the upper 60s and strong day time heating will provide favorable conditions for MCS activity during the late evening and morning hours. Storms should initiate in Colorado/Kansas and propagate southeast during the night. Severe weather is likely in this pattern and the chances are above climatology. I don't see a moderate-end event, but will monitor.
SPC has mainly western Oklahoma in a risk area through Sunday and see no reason to disagree with their analysis. I doubt we'll see MCS activity every night, especially if we get a severe MCS one night. Day time temperatures are going to be quite difficult as debris clouds will lower expected max temps significantly. Presence of very moist ground and lack of a strong ridge aloft seem to negate temperatures above normal for this week. Current normal high for OKC is 92F.
Texas looks to be about the same as Oklahoma this week with temperatures closer to normal values. Widespread thunderstorms activity will be iffy until Friday when a strong shortwave trof dives southeast through the region. This should produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The expected cold front should be in Oklahoma by late Friday and may be an initial focus.
Excessive rainfall will definitely be a concern as old outflow boundaries may setup echo training by Wednesday. No flash flood watches are posted this morning, but this may change by late Wednesday. The good news is that initially the hardest hit areas should be west of I-35 where they'd have a week to dry out.
Tropics rumbled a little last week with TPC watching two areas of disturbed weather. Neither of them developed and no development is expected during the next 48 hours. The tropics remain seasonably quiet, but some increased activity is possible as we get into mid-July.
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