Severe Weather Discussion for July 2 – 8, 2007.
– Excessive rainfall to continue for parts of Oklahoma through Thursday. The threat will move into parts of Texas by Tuesday.
– Temperatures will be at or below normal.
– Tropics remain seasonably quiet with some minor activity.
– Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 5%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
General pattern remains the same with some change in the west as a longwave ridge develops. Models indicate the 594dm ridge staying just west of the area. As this ridge has developed today the weak low pressure system over Oklahoma has started moving southwest. This low will continue moving into Texas the next few days. This should take the excessive rainfall out of Oklahoma, but place it in Texas. Temperatures will be near or just below normal this week (91F in OKC).
A cold front will move into the state on Wednesday and may produce additional excessive rainfall. Ultimate movement will be governed by outflow from MCS activity.
Tropics are a little more active this week but no significant activity at this point. Much of this is seasonable.
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