Severe Weather Discussion for June 25 – July 1, 2007.
– Continued threat for showers and thunderstorms, although the severe threat is lower.
– Excessive rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding remains a threat.
– Temperatures should be close to normal.
– Tropics remain seasonably quiet.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 10%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Models are in agreement that the mid-level pattern will amplify during the week. A 588dm ridge will develop over the central U.S. with longwave trofs on either coast. This appears to be a blocking pattern with some potential for an Omega Block to develop. 00z/06z GFS runs try to develop a 594dm ridge over the region later in the week. This is probably more climo than anything, but we are getting to the time of year when it happens.
Weak mid-level trof, now mainly a shear zone, will remain near the region the next few days. This will provide lift in a tropical atmosphere for showers and thunderstorms the next few days. By the weekend, rain chances may start to decrease as the 588dm ridge builds into the region. With the tropical airmass remaining, the threat for excessive rainfall will continue through Friday.
Temperatures should continue near or maybe slightly below normal this week. Current normal is 90F in OKC. So far in 2007 we have not breached 92F. And, unless something drastically changes, we'll make it through June 2007 like this. Obviously July will see us warm up as we should start to dry out.
The tropics remain seasonably quiet with NHC not monitoring any areas of interest as of today.
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