Severe Weather Discussion for June 18 – 24, 2007.
– Severe thunderstorms are possible today for much of Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday.
– Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal this week.
– Summer solstice occurs on Thursday
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
SPC has a slight risk up for the state per the new Day 1. Incoming cold front will focus modest instability and mid-level shear. Winds will be rather weak but enough turning should exist for a few supercells. Current complex in Texas may impact moisture return and subsidence across the region, time will tell on that matter. Current thinking is that the complex should move east and allow for destabilization this afternoon. Storms are expected to develop in NW Oklahoma and move east/southeast during the late afternoon evening. An isolated tornado with initial activity is possible.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday as the cold front lingers in the area. Weak low pressure system that influenced the region last week is lifting out of the region today. Once this feature is gone and the cold front dissipates we should see an increase in temperatures across the state. GFS wants to build in the 594dm ridge and this certainly would fit the current pattern. Ridge doesn't appear to hold for long as heights remain around 588. The main impact will be temperatures slightly above normal this week, currently 88F in OKC. I do not see extreme temperatures at this point. Still kind of early in the summer, but nice to have 80F on a mid-June day.
The tropics remain seasonably quiet.
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