Severe Weather Discussion for June 7, 2007.
*Significant Severe Weather Event Tomorrow*
– Outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes looks likely today from central Kansas northward.
– Outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is likely from southern Oklahoma northeastward on Thursday. Primary threats are destructive (giant) hail, tornadoes, and destructive winds. This is a potentially dangerous situation with high-end severe weather likely.
– Chase Status is increased to Level 3.
SPC products are awesome today and right on track. I'm not going to go over the Day 1 events because they'll take place well north of the region.
Day 2 is another story and will involve much of Oklahoma on Thursday. SPC has a slight risk up, but it is for expected storm coverage. As with May 29, 2004, there will only be a few storms. However, these storms will produce high-end severe weather. The southern most storm, where ever it occurs, is likely to produce hail to softball size and winds above 70mph. Storms farther north may benefit from the outflow of this storm allowing them a greater tornado threat. This is due to the expected large T/Td spreads with afternoon temps around 90F and dewpoints near 70F.
Current indications are that the dryline will move into the western parts of central Oklahoma during the afternoon hours. This feature should make steady progress east given impressive flow at 700mb and deeply mixed boundary layer. It will slow down though as tropical moisture is still tough to mix out. During the late afternoon hours the cap (EML) should weaken enough for isolated storms to develop. There is no rhyme or reason for where I think a storm will go up. I'm staying with OKC since it is the metro and home base. I think anywhere along I-35 is a good spot for tomorrow. Points north will stand a better chance of development.
Regarding the probabilities, I know SPC will not do a moderate or high. I've gone high on these number due to the potential high-end impacts from any storms that develop. The storms are not expected to be numerous enough to get a higher risk area, but they'll do some bad things either way.
Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 06/07 Day 1):
Level 3 – OKC is the current target, absolutely no need to leave the metro. Timing: When storms develop.
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