Severe Weather Discussion – 2007-11-4

Severe Weather Discussion for June 6 – 8, 2007.
Valid: 06/05/2007.

*Significant Severe Weather Episode Tomorrow*

Highlights:

– Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms appears likely from northern Kansas into North Dakota. From west Texas to central Kansas the threat is more conditional. However, any storms that develop will be supercells with associated threats.

– Active severe weather day is possible on Thursday from southwest Oklahoma into Missouri and points north.

– Chase status increased to Level 2.

Discussion:

No change to prior forecasts or reasoning. SPC Day 2 is okay, not what I would do. I can agree with them about system speed and timing, this system has ended up stronger and farther south than model progs. Either way, a significant severe weather event looks likely for Nebraska into North Dakota. Kansas will likely see some action. The threat around here looks to be in the Texas panhandle as the dryline struggles to move east. An isolated storm or two appears likely, but the big question is where. Due to high T/Td spreads, any storms that do develop will likely be large hail producers along with damaging winds. The tornado threat appears isolated at this time. SPC has a slight risk up and this looks good given expected coverage.

Thursday appears to be a more robust day for this region. The upper system will have shifted east and should be in the central U.S. at this point. Strong wind fields at all levels will be across Oklahoma. Additionally, strong surface heating and tropical moisture should make for an extremely unstable atmosphere. Caveat to an outbreak will be the cold front location. Models are now very progressive with the cold front. If this feature can hold off a few hours, then things might get interesting in Oklahoma. The cap should weaken enough for numerous severe thunderstorms across the state. As with Wednesday, the more significant activity should take place farther north.

Friday looks to be a Red River day and could also be interesting depending on how far south the front makes it. If the front does hang up in Oklahoma then some activity is likely along this boundary. Models want to push the boundary well into Texas and south of the best mid-level flow. This would greatly reduce the severe weather potential.

Beyond Friday, excessive rainfall looks like the main threat as the front lingers in the area. Mid-level flow is progged to decrease along with upper support.

Thursday should get a moderate in Oklahoma, but not sure SPC will do it.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 06/06 Day 1, Day 2, Day 3):

Slight: 100%, 100%, 100%
Moderate: 20%, 90%, 15%
High: 0%, 10%, N/A

Chase Status:

Level 2 – Watching Wednesday and Thursday

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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