Severe Weather Discussion for June 4 – 10, 2007.
– Active severe weather week on-tap for much of the region. High impact days look to be Wed – Fri.
– Temperatures will be above normal and in western parts of the region, much above normal.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 60%
– Storm Chase: 30%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
I'm going to keep this rather short since the general weather pattern has already been discussed in prior issuances. The severe weather threat is very conditional and I wanted to go higher on the probabilities as high impact weather will occur if the cap can be breached. Unseasonably strong longwave trof will take up residence in the western U.S. by Wednesday as shortwave trofs move across the region. Presence of seasonable moisture and heating will lead to extreme instability from Wednesday through the weekend. Wednesday – Friday have the greatest potential for high impact severe weather as strong flow aloft impinges across the region.
These days are all or nothing due to the presence of a seasonably strong cap (EML). As such, storms may not develop on Wednesday in Oklahoma. Likely development will occur farther north across KS/NE/MN. In these areas a high risk is likely for Wednesday. Thursday will see better potential for storm development in this area as the cap weakens and a cold front moves into the region. The surface pattern is similar to that from Memorial Weekend 1998 when supercells developed along a stalled cold front in northern Oklahoma.
Friday – Sunday will see the threat transition to more of an excessive rainfall concern as winds aloft decrease. The front should remain in the area through the weekend with storms possible each day.
Presence of southwest flow aloft will warm temperatures quite nicely this week and expect above normal temperatures all week. In western parts of the state, temperatures may get very close to 100F behind the dryline. Current normal in OKC is 84F.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.