Severe Weather Discussion – 2007-11-2

Severe Weather Discussion for June 6 – 8, 2007.
Valid: 06/03/2007.

Highlights:

– Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday – Friday across Oklahoma northward into Nebraska.

Discussion:

12z models continue to indicate a pattern shift for late Tuesday into Wednesday. This shift will bring southwest flow aloft into the region as western U.S. longwave trof develops. An initial shortwave trof is progged to lift east-northeast across Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Complex evolution will occur Wednesday and beyond as longwave trof takes up residence out west.

Initial thinking is severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening as the shortwave trof moves across northern Kansas. 500mb wind speeds will be around 45kts in this area, increasing to 65kt in central Kansas. 850mb/700mb winds will be strong across the region. Presence of seasonable thermodynamics, points to a severe threat for northern Texas into Nebraska. SPC has this outlooked in their Day 4-8 product and certainly agree. NWS offices are playing 'hot potato' with this one. While I agree the cap will be quite strong, I'm not gonna bet the farm it will hold. NAM/GFS soundings tell different stories for the region, so will have to watch what happens over the next few model runs.

Thursday continues to look favorable across the region, although there will not be an obvious shortwave trof moving across the region at this point. Wind fields will remain favorable across the region for organized severe thunderstorms. The same goes for Friday.

Beyond Friday the threat transitions to the cold front. Will have to monitor the setup, but right now only expect low-end activity beyond Friday.

Probabilities:

Risk area for any part of OK/TX (valid: 06/04 Day 3):

Slight: 100%
Moderate: 20%
High: N/A

Chase Status:

Level 1 – Normal

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About Putnam Reiter

Putnam has been storm chasing since 1990 and is a co-founder of Hook-Echo.com. For his day job, Putnam works in emergency management for information technology.
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