Severe Weather Discussion for May 28 – June 3, 2007.
– Showers and thunderstorms are possible through Thursday. There is a small chance for rain Friday-Sunday. Temperatures will be near normal.
– Tropical Storm Season starts on Thursday.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 20%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Rather non-descript weather pattern will continue again this week. However, this pattern has resulted in lots of rainfall for the region as tropical moisture remains. Current activity should diminish later today as associated MCV's and weak shortwave trofs move east. Then, a stronger shortwave trof moves into the central U.S. on Tuesday with a cold front due into the region late Tuesday. This will provide a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms across the region. Flash flood guidance values remain low and will have to monitor for excessive rainfall throughout the week.
Friday – Sunday we will have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Models aren't that consistent this far out, but in general the atmospheric flow will be weak. Additionally, the 588dm + height lines will be south of the region, so airmass storms are possible. GFS shows a longwave ridge developing in the west and this would place the region in NW flow. It shows periodic high QPF values through the weekend. Tough to call them real or convective feedback. For now, this will be monitored for excessive rainfall and severe potential.
Temperatures will remain normal normal this week, with the only exception for days that have lots of rainfall and/or debris clouds.
Nothing in the tropics so for, but then again wouldn't expect much. The 'A' name is already taken, so we're on to the 'B' name whenever it is time.
For more information, weather news, weather blog, and chase summaries go to http://www.hook-echo.com.