Severe Weather Discussion for May 23, 2007.
– Active severe weather day expected for northwest Oklahoma, northern TX/OK panhandles into southwest Kansas. Primary threats are tornadoes (some potentially strong), large hail, and damaging winds.
– Excessive rainfall is possible for parts of western and central Oklahoma overnight into Thursday.
Setup is not evolving like I thought it would and there are many reasons for this. 12z models and current surface analysis shows the dryline in NM where it should remain much of the day. This feature should be out of play today as the surface low and quasi-warm front are the main attractions. SPC has a very small moderate risk up and this fits well with the expected environment later today.
The moderate risk area depicts the location where the surface low and warm front will be favorably positioned relative to the mid/upper level flow. CAPE value are recovering nicely across the threat area with 3000 J/Kg in western Oklahoma. Expect continued recovery through the afternoon hours. Severe thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the frontal boundary and surface low in the Texas panhandle. Favorable winds aloft point to a tornado threat with any discrete storms. The tornado threat will be greatest from 00z – 03z as the low level jet develops across the region. Storms should then develop into an MCS and track across the region. Excessive rainfall is the likely threat with overnight activity.
SPC is closely monitoring the panhandles into SW KS for development later this afternoon and a weather watch.
Level 1 – Normal
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