Severe Weather Discussion for May 14 – 20, 2007.
– Chance of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday.
– Temperatures above normal today and then near normal the remainder of the week.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 15%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Atmospheric pattern will be in transition from spring to summer again this week as the mid-level flow across the region remains weak. One atmospheric change is progged for Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region late in the day into Wednesday. This is in response to a northern stream shortwave trof moving through the northeast U.S. This feature will like remain too far north to produce any organized severe weather across the region. However, time of year means that isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the cold front.
Today will be warm across the region, much like the past two days. Tuesday will see a drop off in temperatures and below normal values (78F in OKC) for a few days. A warm-up into the weekend is likely with temperatures in the low 80s.
Models indicate that the ridge will weaken today as the previously mentioned shortwave trof traverses east. This ridge will remain weak through the weekend and will result in little or no mid-level flow across the region. As such, conditions will be unfavorable for severe thunderstorms after Wednesday. Weak northwest flow may develop and this will have to be monitored if sufficient moisture moves into the region.
GFS is all over the place in the long-range and little confidence is held in these solutions. Experience dictates that one more western U.S. trof is likely before the western U.S. ridge sets in and we enter NW flow season.
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