Severe Weather Discussion for May 7 – 13, 2007.
– Excessive rainfall is likely for parts of Oklahoma through Wednesday.
– Temperatures will be near normal across Oklahoma through Wednesday and then above normal through the weekend.
– Severe Thunderstorms in Oklahoma: 25%
– Storm Chase: < 5%
– Winter Precip: < 5%
Closed low over the southwest U.S. that caused the severe weather this past weekend is still in-place. This system will not move fast due to the longwave ridge in the eastern U.S. Storms moved across the state earlier today removing instability for now. Warm/moist air from Texas should return to the state later tonight and be lifted over an outflow boundary along the Red River. Flooding is possible across parts of the state as above normal spring rainfall has saturated previously dry ground.
Upper system should start to move east on Wednesday as the upper ridge weakens. The system will be rapidly spinning down at this point but should still provide enough lift to cause rainfall across parts of the region. By Friday the system should be east of the region with a return to above normal temperatures (77F in OKC). Lack of strong flow on the backside of this system and/or connection to the northern jet will limit cold frontal intrusion into the region. As such, conditions should remain warm/moist through the weekend.
GFS/ECMWF at odds beyond this forecast period and I have low confidence in the forecast beyond this week. It does look like we'll be quiet late this week through next week. No western U.S. trof seen on the 16 day GFS, but once again not convinced it is doing a good job.
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