Severe Weather Discussion for April 24, 2007.
– Significant severe weather event is possible today, but is seriously complicated by ongoing convection. Primary threats with initial activity are large hail and damaging winds. Discrete activity later today will have a better potential at tornado production.
Very complex situation today with several forecasting lessons so far. First off the dryline did surge east, contrary to my thinking. However, the dryline has hence ceased its eastward movement and is moving west. A line of storms is currently east of the dryline from Kingfisher to Ringling to Walters. Recent Mesonet data indicates that the dryline may be retreating as noted by southerly flow and mid 60s dewpoints in Blaine and Caddo Counties. There are two areas for development away from the current line 1) ahead of the line, which a few storms have developed and 2) behind the line, assuming the atmosphere can recover. I'd be surprised to see the atmosphere recover, especially for late April. The current squall line will do a number of low-level moisture inflow and will likely disrupt such into Kansas.
I'm very much on the fence about chasing. I'm watching it right now and may go, but the orientation of the squall line and slow movement doesn't spell well for convection later today. SPC is about to issue a tornado watch for eastern Oklahoma and seems they have little choice at this point. This area has CAPE values around 2000 J?kg and is weakly capped. Chances are we'll have a similar situation out east to what is going on right now. Individual storms seem to be struggling and as they may be getting sheared.
Anyway, I may issue an update later this afternoon.
Level 3 – Monitoring
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